The Independent Adviser

Economy

Federal Budget Aims for Stability

This year’s Budget has begun to focus on revenue, not just spending cuts. It aims to contain our debt so we get back into surplus in about 12 years, though the assumptions behind this may prove optimistic.

Outlook for 2017

Economic outlook for 2017 Expect abnormal asset price volatility due to US uncertainties and higher geopolitical risks. Interest rates have begun to rise. But this year may be better than last – US earnings growth, continued easy money and some healthy hints of inflation from a largely skeptical market sentiment...

The Majority Finds its Voice

In June this year, Britons reacted to the porous EU immigration system and voted to leave. Soon after, Australians voted to not give absolute power to one major Federal party. By November, US citizens chose a new President with a billionaire lifestyle and tenuous relationship with the truth, hoping he’d...

Trumped?

The dawning of the Trump era surprised many and markets will be volatile on the uncertainty it creates.  Like Brexit, stock markets may fall initially but soon regain composure.  The best day to buy may have been the day after the election while a Trump possibility was digested.  Regardless, we...

The Unfolding Asian Century

In this Asian Century there have already been some ‘interesting times’, as the Chinese say. However, the compelling underlying themes remain. Both China and India are giant Asian economies positioned to regain much of the world’s wealth they lost during the two centuries of European colonialism. This century is called...

Time for some good debt

Record low interest rates around the world have resulted from unprecedented monetary stimulus, yet the global economy remains sluggish. These low interest rates have driven increasing debt; but has it been ‘good debt’? Has the grand experiment of huge monetary stimulus by central banks around the world succeeded in encouraging...

Tipping Point

We’re long term investors, so we’re not particularly focused on short term market movement – but we may be approaching a tipping point on interest rates.   In a rollercoaster week in financial markets, the world’s Central Banks now realise more ‘easy money’ can’t stimulate growth and near negative interest...

Looking Forward

Current challenges for Australian investors need patience and a clear focus on long term value.  We think another financial crisis the scale of the 2008/9 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is unlikely to arise again for 20 years or so.  Since 2008, financial controls have improved and central banks around the...

Brexit – What Next?

The financial world continues to digest the wide range of possible benefits, costs and implications of the ‘Brexit’ vote but the initial shock waves have calmed. Markets in the UK and Europe have recovered their post Brexit losses and the pound has started a tentative although erratic recovery. The implications...

There’s a hole in my bucket Dear Henry…

In 2009 the Australian Government received a report from wide community consultation looking out 40 years to recommend tax system changes for strong, sustainable economic growth.  It aimed to promote income growth throughout society and high-quality national infrastructure investment. The contrast with the current debate is interesting. It proposed taxing...