The Independent Adviser

Economy

Don’t Start From Here

On a trip to Ireland, a tourist stopped to ask how they might find a particular village.  In that lovely Irish brogue they were told… “to be sure, now I wouldn’t be starting from here!” Australia’s living standard peaked in 2011 with extraordinary commodity exports, mostly to China and unlikely...

Juggling

In a world of heightened volatility low growth and low interest rates, how do you steer a sustainable path to reliable income? It’s a juggle. Outlook Easy money policies around the world to stimulate spending, have inflated growth asset prices. So from here, investment returns will probably be more subdued....

Defusing the Credit Boom

In addressing the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the world’s central banks have inflated the largest private sector credit boom in history. When the GFC began in 2008 with the Lehmann Brothers collapse, we wondered if another Great depression lay ahead. Since then, the US adopted an ‘Easy Money’ policy that...

What’s Ahead?

Geo-political risk is high – events in the Middle East create ongoing volatility and significant tension remains between China and the West. Meanwhile, European unity is being tested by refugee inflow and the possibility that Britain might leave the EU. Short term global stock market volatility is due to uncertainty...

Clarity amid Caution

We think recent share market declines reflect sentiment more than fundamental change.  Equities seem neither cheap nor expensive, with expected modest global growth likely to reward patient investors.  European and Japanese equities (shares) are more attractively priced than the US and they’re also likely to benefit from structural reforms, easier...

Patience or Panic?

Climate change, geopolitical instability and forced mass migration are creating many more displaced people in the world now than during WWII.  Adding to this is an oil pricing slump and uncertain economic outlook globally.  Recent sharemarket falls have built on this anxiety with concerns about Chinese currency depreciation and weak manufacturing...

Markets for Strong Hands!

Globally, investors were frightened by China’s market (Shanghai Composite Index) falling this week. Chinese government intervention halted stock market trade with reports of a possible further devaluation of China’s currency (the Yuan) on Thursday. Though China is a police state, it utilises some democratic elements including its ‘managed’ stock market....

Rates and Planet Heat Up

US rate rises The much anticipated first US interest rate increase since 2006 should be good for investors due to the healthier US economy it implies.  US overnight cash rates were near zero for the past seven years and are now 0.25-0.5% p.a.  This is still extremely low and stimulatory...

Picking Wolves from Sheep

For many decades, humans have been overpopulating our planet and after centuries of manipulating nature, we are changing our climate among other things. This population growth and increased industrialisation creates rising energy demand – from this backdrop, global population is anticipated to grow further to nine billion by 2040. In...

Investing with Climate Change

Our changing climate is a long term investment risk that is already unfolding, creating risks and also opportunities.  Fossil fuel energy stocks are already feeling the pinch and future growth is unlikely to rely on them – though there are likely to be short term underpricing opportunities amid this long...